Abstract

The article develops a conceptual model of the mutual influence of stability and risk in modern political theory. It argues that in the context of globalization, digitalization, and the growth of transnational threats, the classical understanding of stability as static equilibrium is being replaced by a dynamic interpretation in which the resilience of the political system is determined by its capacity to adapt to the risks it generates. Based on systemic, neo-institutional, and constructivist approaches, the authors propose an integrative model comprising subject, institutional, procedural, and legitimation dimensions. The study identifies key mechanisms of interaction including normative regulation, redistribution of responsibility, feedback loops, discursive construction of risk, and political learning. Empirical testing of the model based on evidence from the Republic of Kazakhstan – including the January 2022 events, the 2019 presidential transition, and the COVID-19 pandemic - demonstrates that stability functions as a result of the quality of risk management. The findings show that when institutional mechanisms effectively process risk, it can become a driver of modernization, whereas its accumulation leads to systemic destabilization. The study concludes that it is necessary to move beyond the binary opposition of “stability versus risk” toward a procedural framework centered on “risk management and adaptive resilience”.