Kazakhstan between Russia and China: political balance and nuclear security in a multipolar world

Abstract

In the emerging multipolar world, Kazakhstan finds itself in a unique geopolitical position between two major nuclear powers - Russia and China. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Republic inherited the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal, yet deliberately renounced it, thereby demonstrating its commitment to global security and disarmament principles. On one hand, this decision strengthened Kazakhstan’s international reputation as a reliable partner and peacekeeper. On the other, the country’s geographic location between Russia and China imposes additional challenges for national security, necessitating a delicate balance of interests and a flexible foreign policy. The core issue stems from Kazakhstan’s pursuit of mutually advantageous relations with both powers, which may come into conflict with the global rivalry among leading nuclear-armed states. In the realm of nuclear security, this dynamic compels a careful reconciliation of national interests with obligations under international agreements on non-proliferation and arms control. The proposed solution lies in Kazakhstan’s sustained role as a neutral bridge, actively contributing to dialogue facilitation and tension reduction in the region. According to the author’s view, the country’s accumulated experience in voluntarily relinquishing a sizable nuclear arsenal, combined with its proactive engagement in relevant initiatives, enables it to serve as a pivotal mediator. Such a strategy not only reinforces national security but also underscores the potential for addressing nuclear issues through responsible cooperation and diplomatic leadership.